[Nick Royale]

I have to say I think all posters are wrong.

AA: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo (but I won't consider this since it's a split anyway and we're going to a sd here)
QQ: 3 combos
AQ: 6 combos (discounted from 12, OOP against a tag raising 2 players from MP3 3-betting AQ isn't such a good idea IMO)
JJ: 6 combos
TT: 3 combos (discounted from 6)
The chance of being up against KQ is compensated by the risk of villain holding 99.

When he check/raises the flop I think all of these hands still are likely. I think the standard tag is slightly more likely to do it with AQ than JJ/TT, while I'm more inclined to do it with JJ/TT. An argument could be made for going into WA/WB-mode, but I want to discuss this turn after a flop 3-bet first.

At the turn when he bets, which are his likely holdings? I would like to narrow it to AQ/AA/QQ. I somehow get the feeling this bet smells a little more like AQ being played in confusion than AA/QQ. But at the same time, overall, players are more likely to bet their strong holdings. And betting AQ would be a stupid thing to do and we're not dealing with a nutcase here. So if we're only looking at this from a hand distrubution perpective (I think that's the best way to evaluate this situation) we're only ahead 40% of the time here making a raise awfull.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s 3c


Hand 1: 33.2792 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 66.7208 % { AA, QQ, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]
And our equity is only ~33%.





Now to the going into WA/WB-mode on the flop. You could argue the 2 spades foils this that plan, but there's only one reasonable hand villain could hold giving him a fd (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). I actually like going into WA/WB-mode, a better hand won't get the opportunty to cap or check/raise us on the turn, which would suck. Besides we earn more when he has JJ/TT:


[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 89.6717 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 10.3283 % { JJ-TT }

[/ QUOTE ]
With x being the chance of him calling down with JJ/TT anyway:
2*2*0.9 - (8.5*2 + 2*2)*0.05 - (1 + 2*2)x = 2.55 - 5x
5x = 2.55 ---> x = 51%

Thus, if he folds JJ/TT more than 51% on the turn because we 3-betted the flop we'll make a profit against JJ/TT, which I believe a TAG will. This along with the fact that we're not in such a good shape on the flop as we might think (actually only 60% equity against the range of hands I have put him on) makes the calldown fro the flop check/raise to seem easy.


[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s


Hand 1: 60.0894 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 39.9106 % { AA, QQ-TT, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]