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Old 11-19-2005, 02:56 AM
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Default Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60

The title of your post says tough fold or standard, I believe that the standard play should be to call this checkraise with your top pair hand getting 11.5-1. I also think this is especially true online. Many people in real life do not have the nerve to checkraise bluff the river so a checkraise on the river in a live game usually spells doom, but people checkraise bluff online all the time. Will your hand be good here more than 8% of the time in the virtual world? I think so, this is an autocall IMO when I'm online with no read on my opponent. By the way, what exactly is your opponent representing here? Looking at his stats, He cannot have AA,KK,JJ becuz he wouldve capped preflop, He cannot have 66,77 becuz he likely wouldve been more aggressive on an earlier street, He also may not be loose enough to have KT or JT nor dumb enough to have TT. So what hand is left here? Answer: AQ, thats basically the hand he is representing in my eyes. Does this hand make sense given the play of the hand? Sure it does, He CC'd preflop cuz its not good enough to cap in his opinion, he bet the flop cuz he might have the best hand and he also has a decent draw, and he check/called the turn cuz he felt he had 7-10 outs to beat your hand....But this is only one hand!! I cant find another hand that makes sense given how this hand played out. If there were many other hands this guy could have that beat my top pair hand I might be more apt to fold, but Im not gonna let one hand stop me from calling. But you know what? all this analysis is really just a waste of time becuz you dont need to think about things that deeply to make the right decision....This is what you should be thinking on the river. "I have top pair, excellent kicker, my opponent checks, I am going to bet for value, he checkraises, this is not a good sign, I am getting 11.5-1 to call, I have no read on my opponent,I know my hand will be good enough more than 8% of the time given the aggessive/tricky nature of many online players, Therefore I call, becuz this call will make me money in the long run and I like money."
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