I think this is a marginal play, but a nice aggressive marginal play. A lot of this has to do with my read on villain.
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Hand 1: Villain posts UTG, calls a late position raise, and open-folds on an A36 flop.
Hand 2: Villain calls an EMP raise from BB, check-folds the KT7 flop
Hand 3: Villain calls a MP raise (different player) from SB, check-folds the 998 flop.
Hand 4: Villain limps on the button, bets a T58 flop, checks an ace turn, checks a king on the river. Villain loses to calling station's K2s. He did not show his hand.
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The first hand is fantastically donktastic. Open-folders get immediate disrespect from me. Hands 2 and 3 make him look weak-tight. Hand 4 makes him seem timid. Put all of these together, and I think I have a player likes to see flops but is afraid to show down weak hands.
I was planning to check-fold flops containing an ace or king because I don't like loose preflop/weak-tight postflop players 3-betting me. But this one came down scary enough that I decided to get creative.
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Hand 5:
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, Hero calls.
Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font>
My plan is to give up immediately if 3-bet, and lead the turn with the intent of not putting in any more money if only called.
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Against a player who has shown such weak tendencies, I'm willing to bet that he's folding non-spade hands and the odds of him holding a spade are slightly in my favor (with 3 spades already on the board, it becomes less likely that he's holding one of them). He'll probably still call down with AA-KK, but he's not going to like it.
mmbt0ne gave a nice analysis, and his numbers are based on getting villain to fold *NOW*. The numbers he put forth ignore villain's JJ and TT folds (the ones with no spades). Running the numbers again gives 15/42=35.7% for villain to fold.
Even in the slightly worse case (taking away villain's TT, AKo), villain holds 24 different hands. He folds 6 hands (AKs non-spade plus JJ without spades). This still puts me at 25% to take it down right now.
I actually think villain has a wider range of hands, going down to 88 and including AQ, AJs, KQ, KJs. Since 3 out of the last 4 hands were raised preflop, I'm guessing that he suspects the table is a little LAGgy. That's just a guess, so I'm not putting a ton of weight in it. This tilts things slightly more in my favor.
Anyway, villain folded to the check-raise and left the table 3 hands later.