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Old 12-13-2005, 10:58 AM
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Default Re: SB pushes for 19xBB and you have QJs

IMHO, I have a couple of observations here:

1) There is no mention of antes, but BB is 600, so SB is 300, villain is therefore at M=12.8. He's not dead yet, but getting close to needing life support. When do the blinds move and what are the antes? If fairly soon, an all-in move is not neccessarily strength, particularly when he speaks first now, and may not do so again for several hands. If there were antes, and the blinds were moving soon, the all-in would be nearly mandatory with any two cards.

If we assume a $50 ante: M drops to 8.5. If we assume blinds move soon (and they do on Stars), M soon will drop to about 4.2. SB is out of the tournament, for all intents and purposes.... any decent hand is an all-in hand while his stack can still do damage to any player. He is out of options. Hero's choice is now a judgement call on whether SB recognizes these facts or not. SB may hold just about anything. Personnally, in the absence of a definite read, I wouldn't want to risk a third of my stack on it (that's why this tactic usually works)and I'd let him steal. In this case, the intended victim was the big stack who had less to lose than the mid-stacks. If anyone called, it would have been him.

2) Just about everyone who posted completely discounted the possibility that SB held a premium hand. That would therefore imply that a crazy high raise late in the tournament would be a well disguised, strategically sound move.
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