Re: 10/20 73s
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When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.
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I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.
Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.
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