[elysium]

10-20 solid/ aggressive game. i have JJ on the button. UTG raises in. he's a very profittable opponent to have in the game. i don't like calling someone a fish. anyway, the PO raises in, and he's reraised by a solid aggressive in the UTG+1, a couple of cold-calls to me, and i call, blinds fold.

the flop) 884r the UTG checks to the UTG+1 who bets. it's folded to me and i raise. and this is where i begin to learn a lesson i will never forget. the UTG 3-bets it. i now know that he has trip 8's. he wouldn't know what to do with an over-pair and would only 3-bet into two dangerous opponents with trips. well, the solid aggressive caps it. this tells me my initial read of AKs or AQs is wrong. i know that he has AA or KK now, or perhaps QQ.

it's 2 cold to me now. i didn't really know what to do. the implied odds that the aggressive action was multiplying wasn't getting through my thick skull. i was thinking in terms of facing a cold-call and the chances that my hand was in the lead, which i knew it wasn't. and i folded.

rather than hang around on the turn to see what happened, i got up to get a soda. as i was waiting for the waitress to serve me, it dawned on me that i made a terrible fold. the reason the fold was so terrible was initially the very reason i folded. the aggressive raising and reraising would have continued on the turn. had i spiked the 2 outer, my hand would have been totally concealed and the implied odds would have worked out to 23-1 to 25-1 and more! i was getting better implied odds than if it were only one small bet to me and i called. why? because if it were only one small bet to me, the future action would have been in doubt. they may have folded on the turn or check-called etc. what does this mean?

what i think this means is that it is almost never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop when you know that you're up against trips in a 3-way or better. the odds you're getting on the spike are always correct.

what i'm not sure about:
the questionable area of this thinking is that even if you spike a boat with your over-pair, it is not unbeatable. there could be as many as 4 cards in the deck that will give your opponent a bigger boat even if you spike yours on the turn. and of course you could be up against quads already, or your opponent could improve to quads. and finally, there is andy fox who says that the rails are crowded with players who call 2 cold hoping to draw out. so, there is some possibility of not being in the lead even if you spike, and of your opponent hitting a bigger boat on the river. do these factors matter? or are the slim chances that your spiked boat won't hold up too remote to consider? i'd say 19 out of 20 times your boat will hold up. anyway, i will say it again; it is never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop in a 3-way when you know that you're against trips on a paired board even if you must call 2 cold. agree or disagree? i would like to hear your opinions.