Re: how wrong am i here?
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3/1.
Meh, either way is not a big mistake.
Krishan
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I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit.
I really think that calling here is a sure thing.
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You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in?
Krishan
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Yes. He is putting in 5 for what is likely to be either a $18 pot, or a $24 pot. Sometimes it gets raised by the BB, but I think that is pretty minimal. Lets average the potsize to say $20. For our set, we need the pot to be about $40. That means we need to make up $20, or a bit more than 3 BB. Hmm, I musta done the math wrong earlier.
I still think we make at least 2 BB from implieds, meaning we only need 1 more BB profit on average when we don't hit our set. I think this is probably doable. I agree it is much closer than I earlier thought though.
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