Re: River AQ
There are 3 things to consider here, and 2 of them lead me to call, 1 of them leads me to raise:
1) Josh.'s (sthief's) theory of river donks: Our opponents like to check and call their okay hands on the river; thus a bet often means either a bluff or a monster. Either way, raising does nothing because they will fold their bad hands and 3-bet their nuts. Conclusion: CALL.
2) Villain could easily have made a worse aces-up on the river, and he will not fold this -- so maybe Josh.'s theory doesn't apply in this case. Conclusion: RAISE.
3) Villain's turn donk reads like a semi-bluff, and there are two draws: KJ for the OESD, and spades, for the flush. Both just got there on the river. Since Villain limped in the CO after a couple limpers, having a suited connector in spades is certainly a possible hand. And since I'd find it tough to fold to a 3-bet, I don't want to risk 2 bets to win one. Conclusion: CALL.
So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close.
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