[jason1990]

Incidentally, even in the BM model, you don't know the true win rate, either. So the BM model addresses a theoretical question: *if* I have X WR and Y SD, then... This is possible, of course, because a normal curve has the same general shape for different values of X and Y.

But I doubt the true per hand distribution has the same properties. Its shape is probably highly dependent on the win rate. So suppose I do this bootstrap technique and then I ask, "What if my true win rate is actually X and my true SD is actually Y?" How would I then modify the bootstrap method? I don't think you could just shift and scale all your data, because I doubt that would give you a realistic per hand distribution.

I hope this isn't too unclear. I'm posting and doing my checkbook at the same time. Anyway, it seems the BM model and the bootstrap method may be suited to two different questions. The first is the general question for an arbitrary player with such-and-such WR and SD. The second is the specific question of *my* or *your* probabilities for downswings.