[gumpzilla]

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Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this.

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That was my initial reaction, too, but I think it's a lot closer than it looks. Stacks are quite deep, we still have 100 BBs left behind. The amount of dead money is nice but not massive. Even the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has 12 outs here, and if you give it a J it picks up 3 gutshot outs as well, for example. AT or AQ also gain 3 extra outs. So most plausible A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands we can run into are going to be minor dogs or minor favorites. Two pair and set holdings are also quite plausible. We're probably about even, but a little worse, against two pair (counterfeit outs and flush outs) and a reasonable dog to a set. If we push now, which is the only option I'd be particularly happy with if I were going to continue playing, since I'm not calling off 40% of my stack and folding here, then we're going to need to win ~40% of the time (my math may be off, I'm doing it in my head) to be chip EV profitable here. I think we'll probably win just a little more than that, so I think it's a close call.

EDIT: I think the best case scenario is that we're up against a combo draw with the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which we smash. Taking that into account makes things more favorable, but I don't know how likely it is.