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I think the prize structure makes this a CLEAR fold. Say you're up against AdJc, 9s8s, and AhTh....this is one of the best-case scenarios, I think. Yet even in this case, you're only 30% to take it down. Yes it is profitable. If your opponents turned up these hands and you were playing a winner-takes-all satellite, you would certainly call. However the 50/30/20 prize structure really changes things. 70% of the time you will be gone from the tournament. Having won this hand, you will need to make the money AT LEAST 73% of the time to break even (and that's if you always get 1st!). You can't possibly hope for more than a 10% ROI if this situation comes up every tournament and you call everytime.



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Great post. Makes sense to me now but never thought of it this way, Thanks.