Re: $10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?
You really shouldn't need math to figure this one out, especially given the ranges you gave. Give him AA 80% of the time then maybe it might be worth looking at, but since you can never do that anyway it wouldn't be particularly relevant.
((0.8 * -1000) + (0.2 * +1025)) * 0.1 = -59.5
((0.66 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.3 = +103.95
((0.67 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.2 = +71.35
((0.8 * +1025) + (0.2 * -1000)) * 0.4 = +248
103.95 + 71.35 + 248 - 59.5 = +363.8
That is huge +cEV.
EDIT: Yeah, roger checked me. I used some rough numbers so his is probably more precise.
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