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Old 10-24-2005, 01:05 PM
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Default Re: a tight flop spot in the big blind hand quiz

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wierd...very weird distribution you have here for your poll.

i was on the wierd end of it. MP bets after limp/calling preflop. he likely has the spade draw/pair + draw/naked 9/ naked T if hes really bad/T+pair. many of these hands you dont want there. the spade draw wont fold. but a hdn like K7s will likely fold for 2 cold. further, the CO could easily be raising overs in position for a free card or has a pair. I think you have enough equity here to warrant getting the pot HU and cleaning up outs to raise.

so i voted raise.

on the turn w/ the As, you check if you raised or called ont he flop. if the spade or T or 5 comes on the river, bet. otherwise, check fold.

Barron

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I thought about whether the hero is better off raising the flop or calling and I came to the conclusion that the CO is probably not raising overs on this kind of flop. This is obvioulsy just a guess but on this board even aggressive players will call or fold with their overs instead of raising. And I also felt that the MP guy is not betting into the raiser with a draw unless its a combo draw with a pair. So with the combination that I felt the CO had an overpair and that the MP guy probably had a pair that he may or may not fold, I decided that the hero is not going to win this hand unless he hits so calling is best in my opinion. Im not really saying Im right here, just telling you what I was thinking.
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