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Old 12-27-2005, 03:21 PM
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Default Re: Has he got quads?

In my opinion, the right answer to the question "Has he got quads?" is pretty much always no. Sure, once in a while he does and you happily pay him off. After all, quads deserves to win. But in all the rest of the cases, you win. Turn by turn...

Preflop: Standard

Flop: Good bet. His calling doesn't really tell you much. I'm guessing at that point that he's either an idiot, or he's slow-playing ATs, A8s (very unlikely with 22 vpip), AA, KK, QQ, JJ. You're ahead to everything but the AA and ATs. Pokerstove puts you ahead here 75% of the time.

Turn: Again, good call. I'd cap this every day and twice on sunday. Per pokerstove, you're winning 83% of the time here. I have to assume he's playing AA, QQ, JJ at this point -- either that or we go back to the idiot hypothesis. A distant voice in my mind would be asking whether he had the last ten, but I'd quickly silence that thought and move on.

River: Cap cap cap. At this point, pokerstove is putting you on the favorite 98% of the time. Unless you have a STRONG read on this guy that he is super-tight and weak, then you need to cap. And frankly, I don't see how a read could ever be that good.

You didn't tell us how it ended, but I would've bet the river. If he raised, I'd put him on AA. If he called, I'd assume he showed QQ,JJ,ATs. Alternately, he's got a beer in his hand.
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