[ononimo]

the $100 bet on the flop might have been too small but i don't see how the hero could have bet much more than $200 on the flop without giving some serious reverse implied odds -- any hand that calls much more than $200 on the flop probably already has him beat and will end up stacking him.

i like a $150-$200 bet on the flop ... $250 tops.

i don't like the check-raise here because you can't be sure that anyone will in fact bet the flop and, as you mentioned, your hand is vulnerable enough that you don't want to risk a free card.

it's a rainbow flop so there's no flush draw and any straight draw is a gutshot, and with the hero offering 2.5:1 odds, it's incorrect for a gutshot to call based on expressed pot odds alone. the call from QJ is only correct if the villain believes that he can extract enough from the hero if he hits his King to make up for the fact that he's an approx 4:1 dog on the flop. unfortunately, he was correct this time.

*edited to correct villain's odds on flop (adjusted for 2 cards to come)