[theRealMacoy]

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Raise the fold probability to 20% and your getting better than 3:2 on your money.

Obviously, this does not take into account the chance of being raised. I'd like to hear how you'd adjust this concept to take this problem into account.

I believe thinking about pot odds when your first to act in a heads up or 3 handed pot can be very useful.

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yes, i believe these things are related (whether to bet and the chances of a fold); however anytime you simplify you are losing information. here are some thoughts...

in NL HE your ability to bet a larger amount and force your opponent to fold is greatly increased over limit play (you give them much poorer pot odds to call). the ideas mentioned above thus would not be as effective in limit play (e.g., a probe bet of the pot or half the pot).

in the example you gave you are actually talking about a semi-bluff (as mentioned above). this is a play when you have multiple ways to win and more cards to come. two of those include when your opponents fold and when you make the best hand later on. if you your opponents are calling stations and will not fold then this play becomes inneffective as you lose one of your ways to win. this is similar to what you are describing. one risk of semi-bluffs from late position is a raise, thus you would decrease your frequency of this play against aggressive players. there are many factors to consider when you semi-bluff: number of opponents, aggressive/passive opponents, your position, how strong you think your opponents are, the chance you will make the best hand.....

the greater the number of oppenents you have the chances of a bluff being effective (on any street) is decreased geometrically. your example of increasing the chance of two opponent both folding to %20 seems highly unlikely in limit play (especially after the flop). if you consider these to be independent events then you mulitply the chance each player has of folding to get the chance they will both fold. thus the two players would need to fold an average of %45 each to have a %20 chance they both fold. actually, these are not independent events as often if one folds the other might call due to that event, giving you worse odds of them both folding.

in a small stakes game of limit HE your opponents are particularly likely to continue on to later streets. especially those who have put in raises before the flop. thus considering pure bluffing as effective on 3rd or 4th street is going to cost you money (especially against more than one opponent). your opponents would need to be very tight players to both fold on the flop after betting pre-flop (especially with the board texture you gave in your example).

pot odds and subsequently pot size are major factor in all decisions. your pot odds determine your actions. period. even deciding to bluff on the river should be informed by your pot odds. your outs tell you your chance to make your hand, and given it is the winner, help calculate your pot equity. thinking in terms of pot equity is just a further application of pot odds and outs. if you can calculate one, then the other is easy.

...regarding your example...
i would check for a free card (assuming you are in last position). this is due to the following factors: the small pot, your small number of outs (e.g., no overcards) your opponents either have strong hands or are aggressive players or both (given the pre-flop action) thus will be unlikely to both fold to one bet on the river, your opponents also might check-raise. also, with a small pot and a drawing hand you wnat to keep people in the pot to pay you off if you hit. a semi-bluff raise here may cause one person to fold or even another to raise.


your idea has an intuitive appeal, no doubt.
however, i think you are better off to consider these factors seperately, which will allow you to make better decisions. simplifying things may be initially helpful but will not allow you to adapt as the situation warrants.

sorry for the rambling thoughts. hopefully this was helpful.

cheers,
the Real Macoy