Re: 20-40 Bellagio hand
I just don't see Michael buying this pot on sixth street often enough to qualify as a semi-bluff. How often will he get both opponents to fold? Ten percent of the time? Probably not even that much. Even if we assume that it's 2:1 against his improving, it's still not a value bet, since he won't win every time he improves. And I didn't see anything to indicate that all of his outs were completely live.
And yeah, I'm a pay station, what of it?
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