you think way too much there leroy. the price of a stock over a period of time is solely determined by its earnings potential plus a little for breakup value of the company. forget about market demand and all the other theory from the books. that may tend to push a price for a while but not for too long. except for the last too long bull market where fools bought on every downclick.

if you are going to trade in and out you are correct that things are not always in wack but for just about all the world its buy and hold.