Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
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Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved...
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No.
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Lol, I knew that "No" was a possible answer, that's why I asked...thx for the info anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Guess I'll have to think it through myself.
Looking about the numbers, he only needs to be bluffing the turn about 5% of the time for that single call to be correct (we're getting 6:1 with a gutshot that comes in ~9% of the time.)
Given that our turn bet looks kind of vulnerable, and the pot is laying him 2:1 on a bluff, he probably is bluffing more than 5%. Especially since he may not put you an A and think that he's really semi-bluffing a 6 out draw with his Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something.
But the question is, "How often will he fire the second barrel on the river?" Almost never if he has a pair (66, 87s, even 88 are possible), or improves to a pair, of course...which happens 13% of the time he was pure-bluffing the turn.
So say he continues betting a worse hand on the river like 60% of the time. We're getting 8:1 on the river, so we need to be good 11% of the time. That would mean he would need to be bluffing the turn 19% of the time...
Yeah, I agree, call the turn, fold the river.
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