[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? Extremely wide range Which of those are you ahead of on the river? everything but fullboats Which are you behind? da boats What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin.

Easy. Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thought process is ok, but I disagree with some of your conclusions. Most importantly, there are a bunch of draws that might be calling you through the turn that wouldn't call a bet on the river and you'd probably hear from an A long before the river if he had one of those. So, through the turn, in order of likelihood, I'd put villain on (1) a Q or T, (2) flush draw, (3) inside straight draw, (4) weak A or maybe a baby pair. You get raised by (1) and lose 2 BB. (2) and (3) don't call a bet. You win one BB from (4). Since you're probably either going to lose 2BB or win 1, for a bet to be correct it must be TWICE as likely you're ahead than behind. If anything I think the opposite is true here.