Re: River value bet against lag
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In my experience, if he's checking a pair on the turn, it's because he's going to showdown regardless of what comes and he wants to get there as cheaply as possible. Or he has a monster.
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This is my thinking as well. He looks like he wants to get to showdown (surely he'd have bet an Ace on the turn) and the likely candidates he wants to showdown are (to me) 7x and 6x.
Like you said players that do this tend to call down even when they really can't beat anything you'd logically hold. I should know, I've done it.
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