Re: non-sticky casino bonus question
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You can't accuratley determine EV until you are finished playing. Your initial assesment is just an approximation.
EV is directly related to the number of hands you play.
< hands = > EV.
Or at least this is how I understand it.
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EV is expected value, not value. I'm not disagreeing that increasing your bet size will increase your variance, increase your CHANCE of busting out, and therefore increase your expected value. It will, and this therefore means that betting higher will have a slight +EV effect. However, actually busting does nothing to your expected value, that has already been calculated. All it is is you experiencing one possible outcome to playing with higher variance. The difference between what I'm saying and what you're saying is subtle, but true; and therefore means that there is no reason to celebrate when busting out.
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