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Old 11-30-2005, 08:19 PM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

My post was in response to nooob, who sounded like he was enthusiastic about our opponent folding. We definitely don't want him to fold here. Well, more properly, if he folds, it was almost certainly with a hand we didn't really want him to fold. We'd rather get an extra bet on the river.

Actually, if we knew for certain that he would be the river here, it's ok to call if he's drawing. He'll put in that last bluff for us, giving us the same EV whether he hits or misses.

Here's the thing, if we 3bet, we have to fold to a cap. This not only means we're folding as the pot gets larger, which is something we should tend to avoid doing, but we also agree to forfeit our outs. In this case, we have our two J outs, and the 9's are worth something. I don't know how many times he'll call with A9 or K9 (he's quite tight) compared to 55 or 66. If I'm sure I'm going to put in two more bets, and I'm considering raising and folding or calling down, I want to get something in exchange for my raise that would justify giving up my outs. That something in spots like this is the chance he'll fold a better hand. In this case, that chance is virtually zero. I prefer to call down.
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