[DMBFan23]

Joe,

I think we talked about this issue one other time as well, but last time we had an Ace with our flush draw. Let me tell you what my thoughts on this are, and then you can tell me via PM, posting, or just not at all, why I'm wrong.

assumptions:
1) we're making out flush 35% of the time by the river.
2) no one is going to fold for one more small bet on the flop.
3) BB may 3 bet, say X% of the time.
4) some percentage of the limpers in between will fold when BB 3-bets, say Y% of them. none of them is going for a limp-cap.
5) if BB does not 3 bet, we get a free card.

I am thinking there is some amount of callers where the immediate overlay from raising and everyone calling gives enough +EV to counteract the combined effects of:

1) the chance of BB 3 betting, and callers folding. (X*Y)
2) the chance of a higher flush draw being out there (possibly not independant of BB's 3 bet).
3) the chance that BB will not bet the turn, or that callers will fold the turn when he bets but would have called my flop raise. (EDIT: assuming I hit my flush on the turn)

I always thought one other limper (so two in between me and BB) would give me the overlay to counteract these effects, especially given that BB doesn't often 3 bet, and if the turn gets bet people who came this far probably aren't going anywhere.

how many limpers do we need to get more value on the flop? or is there no number for you? I know asking for a specific number really isnt the point, so I guess I'm asking "is there a point at which the benefit from raising now outweighs the expected benefits of waiting?"



EDIT: also, how does

[ QUOTE ]
give me one more caller and raising now has merit

[/ QUOTE ]

not produce a situation similar to the following hand from SSH? (below there is a BD straight draw, granted)

[ QUOTE ]

Hand No. 3: You have the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. Three players limp in, you limp, the small blind calls, and the big blind checks. The flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving you a flush draw. The small blind checks. The big blind bets and two of the three limpers call. What should you do?

Book Answer: Raise. This is a turn problem, so the book provides no explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I swear I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm genuinely trying to understand the differences.