[Buzz]

iblucky4u2 - You’re welcome. Here are a few more details, in case you’re interested. You only back-door a low 160/990 with this hand/flop. For exactly half of those lows, 80/990, the nut straight holds up and for the other half a heart or spade flush becomes possible (10/990 for the heart flush and 70/990 for the spade flush).

“ I did not realize that 703/990 combos = no nut high or low with these cards. Based on that, it is almost a fold on the flop as this hand would be a huge underdog 7 out of 9 times!”

After this flop, the hand is a 71% underdog to end up as the nuts, but while you usually need the nuts to end up a winner for low, that isn’t the case for high nearly as often as it is for low.

For example, I’m fairly confident, when you make a king high flush holding exactly two cards in the flush suit in four card Omaha or Omaha-8, that the probability of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make an ace high flush is 0.401 in a ten handed game and 0.356 in a nine handed game. Thus in a loose ten handed Omaha-8 game, a non-nut king high flush should win for high about three times out of five while losing to an ace high flush the other two times out of five.

I don’t know exactly what the probability is of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make either an ace high flush or a king high flush, when you make a queen high flush. I also don’t know exactly what the probability is of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make a full house if the board pairs on the turn or river here. If you were certain one of these was going to happen, you’d probably do better folding on the flop.

However, you don’t know for certain the board will pair or flush on the turn or river. And even if it does, there is a fair chance your hand may hold up for high, either as a straight or as a non-nut flush. Similarly, you don’t know for certain a higher straight will become possible, and even if it does, there is a fair chance your non-nut straight will be good for high.

Thus I would not fold this hand after this flop. The small blind led with a bet after this flop. Walter raised, then backed off when one opponent made it three bets and yet another opponent cold called the three bets. Walter’s actions on the second betting round seem very reasonable to me. It would seem difficult to foresee the re-raise and the cold-call of three bets coming ahead of time. Then, considering the size of the pot, calling the re-raise on the second betting round seems the correct thing to do. There is still hope for the turn and river and Walter was getting pot odds of twenty to one for the call here at the end of the second betting round (plus implied pot odds).

The seven of hearts on the turn is not a great card for Walter, opening the door for a heart flush. However, neither is the seven of hearts a horrid card, since it doesn’t pair or flush the board and since it also gives Walter a draw for low. Although I originally suggested leading on the third betting round, as I think more about it now, maybe the best way to handle the third betting round, considering the betting action up to this point, would be to check and call. Because of the size of the pot, Walter certainly has odds to see the river card. Then, also because of the size of the pot, I think Walter should call on the river.

Walter hasn’t posted the results yet. We still don’t know if maybe he lucked out and somehow scooped, with neither opponent having the heart flush and also neither opponent somehow having the QT straight.

But I don’t think this is an automatic fold on the flop.

Just my opinion at this time. Thanks, as always, for your excellent input.

Buzz