Thread: O/8 hand
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Old 03-27-2003, 07:46 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
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Default Re: O/8 hand

"Comment at any stage please."

"I am in the big blind with Ad 2s Qs Td"

Walter - Nice starting hand. Playable from any position in any kind of game. (passive or aggressive, tight or loose, short-handed or full).

"Six players see the flop for 2 bets, so there is $60 in the pot on the flop. "

Looking good. Seems as though the opponent who cold called three bets on the second betting round is the same opponent who raised pre-flop. Correct?

"The small blind bets, I raise, two players fold, someone makes it three bets, then the preflop raiser calls three cold. The small blind folds and I call. "

Flopped nut straights are notorious for not holding up in Omaha-8. Thus I can see raising on the second betting round to try to win the pot right here with everyone folding to your raise. Trouble is, I haven’t played in many $5-$10 games where this ploy has worked well for me. I'd probably still raise here, hoping to at least limit the field. I can also see limping with a flopped nut straight.

Another consideration is you're out of position here. If the board later flushes or pairs, you'll probably be stuck checking and then wondering whether to call the (almost inevitable) bet or not.

At this point, I figure that the 3-bettor has a hand quite similar to mine, and the person who called three cold must have the nut spade draw along with a draw to a full house.

Not unreasonable.

At this point, unless your active opponents are poor players or maniacs, you have to suspect at least one of them also has QTXX. Maybe both of them do. You wrote that six players saw the flop. I wonder how many players were originally dealt cards. When ten players were originally dealt cards and you are dealt QTXX, then one other player (out of your nine opponents) will also have been dealt QTXX approximately 38% of the time and two other players will also have been dealt QTXX approximately 5% of the time. There is no saying whether or not someone else who has been dealt QTXX would see the flop or not. Depends on the other cards dealt to the player and also on the looseness of the player, among other factors. In a loose $5-$10 game, with the information you have given, there simply is no way to tell for sure. But I’d have a strong hunch that at least one of my opponents also had QTXX here.

After this flop there are, from your viewpoint, 990 different two card combinations possible on the turn and river. Of these, assuming one opponent has QTXX, but nobody else has A2XX:
1/990 you end up with the nut spade flush for a scooper,
80/990 you end up with the nut straight plus the nut low for 3/4 of the pot,
62/990 there is no low and you end up with the nut straight for half the pot,
70/990 you end up with the nut low but not the nuts for high for a possible half of the pot.
74/990 you end up with the nut straight, but an opponent has the nut low and you get quartered for high,
703/990 you don’t end up with the nuts for either high or low. You may win anyway, but it will be with a non-nut hand.

Sobering, eh? As I wrote above, flopped nut straights are notorious for not holding up. But who knows? You may make the 3rd nut spade flush for a winner. Or your flopped nut straight may win even if the board pairs or a heart flush becomes possible via the back door on the river.

Thus you may win anyway, however your flopped nut straight is an underdog to still be the nuts on the river.

I wonder why you didn’t make it four bets on the second betting round. Did you back away because you suspected you might be quartered for high if your flopped nut straight did hold up? (There are clearly a number of other considerations).

So there is now $110 in the pot and three players. The turn is the 7h. So I now have a nut low draw. I check, the three-bettor on the flop bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, I raise, the three-bettor again makes it three bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, and I call.

You evidently checked planning to check-raise. I’m not sure why you did that. I’m not criticizing you for your play, just not sure why you went for a check-raise. (I probably would have bet, rather than going for the check-raise, on the third betting round. Then, after getting raised here by a respectable opponent, I would back off, just as you did). I'd bet here, at least partly, to prevent an opponent behind me (who might have raised on the second betting round with a set) from getting a free card on the turn at my expense.

But now, if there was any doubt after the betting on the flop, it really looks like at least one of your opponents has QTXX plus a redraw to a flush or full house, or also to the nut low.

After the 7h on the turn I really like ten cards for you (3c, 3d, 4c, 4d, 5c, 5d, 6c, 6d, Kc, and Kd). You should show a profit if any of these cards comes on the river. You might scoop or you might split with one or two other QTXX highs - and/or split with one or two A2XX lows.

I feel kind of neutral about twelve other cards (Ac, 2c, 2d, 3h, 3s, 4h, 4s, 5h, 5s, 6h, 6s, and Ks). You’ll get a share of the pot with any of these twelve cards, but it might be only a quarter or a sixth of the pot. Or you might get lucky and 3/4 or scoop - but considering the active betting, respectable opponents would be expected to have decent hands with many (but not all) of the possibilities covered. .

I don’t like the other twenty two cards for you, any one of which can mess you up so that you might get nothing here. You still might get lucky and get a share of the pot (or even scoop) anyhow if one of these 22 cards shows up on the river, but I don’t think you should count on doing well if one of these remaining 22 cards appears on the river.

Although I would have bet the turn, after considering your outs and the fact that you only have two opponents, in hindsight, I don't think the odds are favorable for a bet on the turn. It's something for me to think about in terms of the way I play myself. Calling as you did, rather than capping the betting, after your check-raise gets raised on the third betting round seems proper play.

The river is the Kh. It gives me the nut straight, but also completes the runner flush. I check, the three-bettor bets, the cold-caller calls, I call.

Ugh. Regardless of the result, because of the size of the pot, you’re stuck calling here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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