[bluefeet]

i do understand that, i really do......but [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...

for sake of the discussion, we'll agree to call the turn bet because...

1 - we might be ahead and stand to get more chips
2 - we might be behind, but could get him to fold on the river
3 - we might be behind, but could see a 'cheap' showdown

is this correct?

now this gets pretty interesting. if you count the Ace, K, 9, and 8 for OESD 'scare' cards, we have all 16 out there. add the remaining 5 diamonds (assuming we assume he has two, or he assumes we have two!!) - we have a total of 21 'action' cards.

non-action card on river
what do you advocate?
- if we called the turn because of #1, we push correct? but if we are in fact ahead, he's not likely to call this river, true?
- if we called the turn because of #2, we missed!! (in his mind). i see no other option than check/fold
- if we called the turn because of #3, we check/fold or roll the dice and check/call

gets fun now....

action card on river
what do you advocate?
- if we called the turn because of #1, we're in trouble - no? he now may be ahead. check/fold?
- if we called the turn because of #2, we hit!! (in his mind). pushing is the only option true?
- if we called the turn because of #3, we hit!! (in his mind). pushing is the only option true?


so here's my delima with calling - by being out of position, there is NO river card that will provide us with any clue as to whether we're here because of #1, #2, or #3!!

and without knowing, we are either... a) pushing blind, b) check/calling blind, or c) check/folding, or d) check-check

(a) is no better than pushing on the turn, because he's not calling the river push unless we're beat
(b) is ONLY going to be better than pushing on the turn, when button continues a bluff/AA/KK/AT hand - in all other cases we're broke
(c) is never better than folding to the turn raise (had we pushed, we might not be here) - could be better than pushing the turn (we still have chips), but NOT if it's because the river put him ahead
(d) is only...............oh boy, nose bleed!!

for me it basically boils down to this:
- the river will SELDOM provide the opportunity for you to collect additional chips in an already HUGE pot
- the river might provide the opportunity for button to pull ahead AND collect most of YOUR chips
- the river MIGHT reveal, via check-check, that you have in fact won (having collected no additional chips...at the risk of giving the river card), or you have in fact lost - possibly because you DID give the river card.

i don't know that i convinced anyone of anything, but i still have to put calling behind pushing or folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]