[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises. The vast majority of the time these donk bets indicate a weak hand, as bad players tend to rigidly check their good hands and bet their bad ones.
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No real reads on opponent as he has flown under the radar so far. He wasn't a fucktard.
Party Poker (8 handed)
converter
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.
Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 bets, Hero ???
[/ QUOTE ]
OP makes no mention of Villain being a bad player. In fact, one may be able to infer that he not a bad player.
That said, this particular donk bet is extremely well disguised. Nobody has mentioned the possibility of Villain holding QT (no heart), waiting for a non-heart turn - betting for value and to protect. KJ, K9, J9 and lesser Ks are possible along with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x where x can be a heart or a non-heart are possible. How about a total bluff?
As such, since it appears that Hero raising the turn has zero fold equity with all hands that Villain might have (except for a total bluff) calling, I do not see a turn raise as adivisable. The decision then is call or fold.
Even though Villains hand range either puts him ahead of Hero (at the moment) or, if behind, contains redraws to the better hand, Hero does have a draw to the nut str8flush and 2nd nut flush. I value this at 1 for the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and ~4 for the other [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw because villain may have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with a made or a drawing hand.
Hero's pair and overcard outs, imho, only come into play a small fraction of the time so maybe 1 out there.
5 outs, then plus the equity when Hero is ahead on the turn.
Conclusion... My gut tells me to fold and mentally congratulate Villain for good play.
Now I happen to have been carrying a copy of TOP with me and now have looked at pages 112-115. Seems fold looks OK.
DISCLAIMER: I am, in now way certain that anything that I have just written is correct.
Anybody else?