Re: 2-7 noob hand #2
Raise pre flop*. Only call on the end if you know he will make a play at the pot on a busted draw with a reasonable frequency (or is crazy and will draw one to a T or J here).
This brings up a good question, what is a reasonable frequency? he had 4-5 ranks he could hit to beat you (in all likelyhood). Lets say he had ~13 outs, stub is in the low 30's in count. So he has about a 40% chance of hitting. Lets say he bets about half of those, so there is a 20% chance he hits and bets, 20% chance he hits and check calls (or rarely check raises). (the action is hard to follow here, how is UTG calling after hero calls?) I think you are getting 6.5 : 1 here (Euri, it looks like the conver is only quartering the number of SB instead of halving them to get the pot size).
Where was I? Oh, ~6.5:1. So, call B the bluff frequency when he misses. That means the conditional probability of him bluffing is (0.6B)/(0.6B + 0.2). This must be greater than 1/7.5 to make calling profitable, so solving for the break even point we get:
7.5*0.6B = 0.6B+.2 => 3.9B = .2 so B needs to be just over 5%.
To see if this makes sense, lets say he bluffs 5% of the time he misses, your EV will be:
0.2*(-1) + (0.6)(0.05)(6.5) = -.005BB.
Wow, that is a lot lower than I thought. If he will bluff more than 5% of the time he misses, given that he only bets half the hands he catches that beat you and he has about a 40% chance of improving to beat you, calling is correct here.
*I am not positive of the action in this hand, the converter makes things a little confusing here.
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