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Old 12-15-2005, 11:07 AM
Marlow Marlow is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 25
Default Re-bluff: possible squeeze-bluff

I’m on the button and everyone folds to me in a 6max 2/4 game. I raise to 12 with JTo. A very tight SB calls the bet, and before BB acts, I say out loud to my computer “this is a great place for a big squeeze bet.” Surely enough, BB raises to 55. So now there’s ~$80 in the pot, I’ve got about 400, SB’s got around 400, and BB’s got around 130 left behind.

I’m not worried about SB. To this point, he’s shown that he doesn’t like to slowplay his big hands. I’m 90% sure that he’s folding to BB’s bet, let alone any additional action from me.
BB seems to be a decent short stack player who is good at taking advantage of situations such as this one, where it appears that there’s dead money on the table that can be easily scooped up with a little aggression.
I have not been playing many hands to this point. Also, I’ve only been at the table for about 25 hands.

Assuming that SB would fold, here’s what went through my head: putting him in will probably get him to fold out JJ and down about 75% of the time. Maybe he folds QQ 30% of the time. He never folds AA or KK. If he calls with 2 overs about 50%, I’m only a 2-1 dog. He always folds rags. And in this situation, he has rags more than usual.

As you may have guessed, I put him in. I like my read here, but I still feel as though my overall reasoning is quite incomplete. Please let me know what I missed in my thought process, or what was flat out wrong. Or hell, if you likee… that’s good to hear, too.
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