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Old 05-04-2005, 03:52 PM
Gramps Gramps is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Oaktown
Posts: 124
Default Re: AJs call ss push on the bubble with medium stack?

It's a pretty easy call IMO. Yes, it's nice when you get a "freeroll" into 3rd by two other players getting in a confrontation. However, even though you'll get 4th more often by calling, that will be more than offset by your increase in 1sts/2nds. I think a good way to think of it in these spots, is that folding does not guarantee you 3rd (there will now be 3 even stacks, and you're going to have to push some hands to steal chips and put your tourney life on the line to maintain your stack as the bubble battle continues). When you have the best of it by this much, you really have to make a stand (absent some odd variables).

Even if the SS is pushing about the top 25% of hands, AJs is a 59% favorite. My guess (without knowing how he's played up til now) is that he's pushing an even wider range. You're getting 2020:1270 or about 5:3 on your call as a 60%+ favorite. And even of the times you lose, you will still only be one showdown away from winning your fold equity back.

Now, if you had a hand like A8o/A9o, then it would be a tougher decision. Or if it was a semi-reasonable big stack pushing it would be a much tougher decision with AJs (because winning doesn't guarantee you at least 20% of the prize pool).
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