Re: AA
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Why not raise the river?
I also think its important not just to state "WA/WB" as a justification for passive play. If "WA" is 98% of the time, and "WB" is 2% of the time, clearly a raise is needed. Not to say that that is necessarily the case here, but I think the "WA/WB" gets overused around here on occasion.
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I disagree, WA/WB should be used as a justification to be less worried about free cards. you don't have to be worried about free cards as much if you're either way ahead, or way behind, but not in the middle. if you have the nuts, for example, then it's vacuously true that you're WA or WB and you don't care about free cards.
there aren't many hands that could exist where you're either WAY ahead 98% of the time, but WAY behind 2% of the time. the best thing I can think of is a flush on a low double paired board. a lot of the time you aren't sure whether you're WA or WB (the percentages are close to even, as in the classic weak A versus a PF 3-bet on an A high board example), and that's when the passive line comes in, to max wins/min losses. but the concept of not caring as much about free cards comes into play whenever you're WA/WB, regardless of the percentage that you're either.
But of course, the EV of how you play the hand depends on so much more than whether you're WA/WB, especially multiway where you have so many more options...will they call two cold? will they 3 bet a worse hand? will they fold straightaway but continue to bluff me? can I trap anyone?
now you would want to raise in this hand for two reasons:
1) protect your hand
2) maximize the money that goes into the pot
all that WA/WB means is that 1) is not as much a concern, and I don't think anyone here could argue that we need to charge any draws on this flop, even pocket pairs aren't getting odds if we don't spew like a maniac on the turn + riv.
so now we need to decide if not raising accomplishes 2). I think this was the point you had in mind when you mentioned overuse of WA/WB, that WA/WB has nothing to do with this aspect of the hand. I don't think it necessarily means that a raise is needed, that's a seperate issue IMO. I will agree with you that it doesn't necessarily dictate passivity, though it does lessen your vulnerability to free cards
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