Re: Probability of flopping 1 card flush draw?
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I come up with a number I think is too high and I think it has to do with inclusion - exclusion.
Probability you hold two diamonds, that you will flop 2 diamonds =
P(1st and 2nd cards are diamonds)= 11/50 * 10/49 = 4.49% or
P (2nd & 3rd cards are diamonds) = 11/49 * 10/48 = 4.68% or
P (1st & 3rd card are diamonds) = 11/50 * 10/48 = 4.58%
P(of floppin 1 card draw) = 4.49 + 4.68 + 4.58 = 13.75%
Then probaility of flopping flush = 11/50 * 10/49 * 9 /48 = .84%
I'm wondering if I should be using the choose function to calculate these?
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The chance of flopping EXACTLY two diamonds:
(11 choose 2)*39/(50 choose 3)= .109
To get this same answer using your method, you'd need to do:
P(1st diamond, 2nd diamond, 3rd NOT diamond) = 11/50*10/49*39/48
Alter your second and third calculations similarly. Then the two answers will agree.
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