[wdeadwyler]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all don't post results.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding because you think he has a higher set is stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not in this situation. About the only hands that cold call that flop overbet (don't do that by the way) are AA,KK,AT+ (with a bias towards AQ+ because you said he was tight passive). No other hands call this. Out of this very precise hand range, 2 hands have us drawing 22:1 and AQ has us drawing slim. AK/AT we are way ahead of. Turn check from a tight passive doesn't mean too much alone, because that's what passive players do- check. However, couple this with the flop cold call and the river overbet/push, and the turn looks extremely like a missed check-raise.

That said, he is shortstacked. I'm absolutely showing down bottom set for a pot sized river bet.

I would have bet the turn, and call his push because you are pot committed. You are losing value by checking this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're analysis is good but your conclusions suck. Villain's range isnt good for hero. I definately check behind on the turn and if I dont fill up I fold. Betting this turn is just silly. The board is 10JKA, we have 1010, and you want to go to the felt?? Of Villain's range, only AK, AJ, and A10 we are ahead of, and those hands arent gonna go wild calling this turn. Furthermore, villain is ublikely to have a 10 here. Betting this turn might work here and there against two pair, but overall it is definately -EV imo.