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Old 12-28-2005, 05:19 PM
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Default Re: A less clear hand to comment on for the esteemed panel

PREFLOP: What to with AJo UTG in a ten handed game has been debated for a long time, probably becuz it really doesnt matter whether you raise/call/or fold this hand. However you are currently in a 8 handed situation. In this spot I think raising is the best play.

FLOP: You should fold, the pot is small. On this board your overcard outs are probably no good and all you have is a one gard gutshot that isnt to the nuts and theres a decent chance you will have to split if you hit.

Lets try to figure out your pure outs. I would give your ace outs 1.5 pure outs since, many times you will hit this hand and still lose. I would give your jack outs .5 pure outs since if this card hits the turn, you should be check-folding more than betting or check-calling. I would assign your gutshot outs to 2 pure outs. Given that 3 other opponents are still in this hand there is a higher chance than normal that you will have to split this pot if you hit, and even if you hit your hand on the turn you can still be up against a higher straight or you can still get outdrawn if a jack falls on the river. So you you have a total of 4 pure outs, and your getting 8.5-1 pot odds to call. Since you need approx 11-1 to call you should fold. But what about implied odds?? Well I would estimate your implied odds to be zero since many of the hands you hit can cost you just as much money as you make, and if you hit your straight you dont stand to make many additional bets from 2nd best hands since this board will look extremely scary for anyone who doesnt have a straight.

TURN: Despite everything I said about your flop play, calling the flop wouldnt be terrible, and it would only be a small mistake at best, and who knows maybe its a profitable call cuz there are enough dumb players to pay you off with one pair if you hit your gutshot on the turn.
However, calling the turn would be terrible IMO. Now your odds are considerably worse, you are only getting 6.75-1 instead of 8.5-1 and now, whatever implied odds you think you might have are also severly diminished since you only have one street left to make any money if you do hit your hand. You should fold.
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