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Old 10-21-2005, 11:37 PM
jman220 jman220 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: No Poker Sept-May
Posts: 822
Default Re: I knew party poker blackjack would be the end of me...

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One of my roommates has a system that he says works well enough to beat the BJ on bodog. The max bet on Bodog is 500 I guess and he starts with 1 dollar bets and just keeping doubling if he loses, and according to him losing 9 straight hands in a row is nearly impossible. I dont even know the basic rules of BJ though so I couldnt tell ya...

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as others have mentioned...this is a VERY popular strategy...and the logic is extremely flawed.

You will lose with this strategy.

You can go into a casino and TELL the floor and pit-boss that this is the EXACT strategy you are employing.
They won't kick you out.
They might mention that they've heard of this before (anyone who has dealt blackjack for a few weeks is familiar with players trying this).
If they see that you really ARE trying this strategy (and not just talking about it) they will come back to your table with various room and steak-dinner comps.


This strategy favors the house (because they already have an advantage) PLUS it increases the average-size bet that the player makes. Thus you will find that the casino is your best friend.


There are MANY people who believe in this strategy...and I really don't know the best way to explain to them that it just plain doesn't work.

But your roommate will lose a lot of money in the long-run if he continues to employ this strategy.
And if talks about the 'horrific and almost impossible losing streak he went on' in order to lose all that money...then just means that he STILL doesn't get it.

The losing streaks that will drain him of his money are GUARANTEED to happen if he continues to play.

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The Flaw in it was pointed out to me in laymans terms this way:

On your first bet, your odds of losing are 51 percent, and you are only getting 1:1 on your money.

The odds of you losing two bets in a row are only slightly less than 1 in 2, but of course, you are risking 2 dollars to only win 1. So you are risking more money than the payout agian.

The odds of you losing four bets, are slightly worse than 1 in four times, yet you are risking four dollars to only win one.

The odds of you losing five bets in a row are worse than 1 in eight. Yet you are risking Eight Dollars to only win one.

Etc. Etc.

If you have to play a streak of nine in a row, on the ninth hand, you are risking $512, to win... One Dollar. Sure the odds of you losing Nine hands in a row may be 500:1, but if you win you're only getting paid 1:512, not 1:500. This is why this system doesn't work. If you had infinite money and there was no such thing as betting limits, then sure the system would work. But you don't, and there are.
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