[Ed Miller]

What I mean to say is, it is usually only a small mistake to raise w/ 22 UTG in most 2-4 games.

I definitely agree with that. This was really the point of my example... that failing to raise ATs is a major error (as is folding AQ), and the "giving extra action" errors I listed were all much smaller in magnitude (if errors at all... notice in the column I didn't label them "errors," I labelled them "plays"... at least I think I did.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

My post where I estimated EVs was just intended to give people who are brand new to thinking about poker this way a quick "back of the envelope" introduction to estimating this kind of stuff. That's why I used three different methods to estimate (random hands, pokerroom.com data, and capping losses). Yes, some will misapply these techniques, but I still think they should be exposed to them. People light up when they hear for the first time about raising because you'll win more than your share. Many of these people think raising is for "getting the garbage out" or other stuff... and those reasons never quite rang true for them because... well, because they are mostly nonsense. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Also, I don't want people to get too lost in the numbers. The actually numbers are VERY hard to nail down because there are so many variables. But thankfully you don't have to nail the numbers down to get most poker decisions correct. A little logic and intuition will get you to the right place often enough to smash any small or medium stakes game.

This is another reason I'm not a huge proponent of running sims. 5% of the effort will get you 90%+ of the answers. And the answers it won't get you are close in nature anyway. Yet most people are still struggling with that first 90%. So the large majority of poker players have little need for sims... because they still need to learn how to get what they can just by thinking things through.