Count Cards, Not Card Ranks
Count cards, not card ranks.
If you know your opponent holds at least one ace, the flop is A 9 6, and you hold AT, then there is one way your opponent can hav AA, eight each for AK through AJ, and six each for A9 and A6, for a total of 37 ways you can be beat on the flop. There are six ways your opponent can have AT for a tie. There are eight ways each for A8 and A5-A2 for a total of 48 ways you can have your opponent beat.
When all is said and done you are something like an 6:5 equity favorite on the flop. I'm counting on my fingers to figure this, someone might want to plug hand ranges into Pokerstove to get an exact number.
And, of course, before the flop, if you have AT and know your opponent has at least one ace, your edge is even larger.
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