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Okay, so I usually rely heavily on
Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.
However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?
USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?
Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.
West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?
Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.
I am so confused.
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Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.
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So, you think one player is worth 10 points?