Re: KJo - what do you think of this line?
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1. MP3 is pretty passive. How often do you think he has a king here? If it's pretty often, it also makes it even less likely that CO has a king and more likely he has a set.
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I wouldn't consider 0.9 especially passive having a vpip of 43. And his 8% pfr makes it hard for him to hold a better K. MP3 is a problem though, in more than 1 way. If he caps the flop I will fold the turn.
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2. Reverse implied odds will kinda suck on this hand because when CO has a set you are stuck calling multiple bets, and even more bets when you hit a king or jack.
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I actually don't think the reversed implied odds suck here as CO will pay me the same ammount when I'm ahead. CO will bet the turn with a K but often take a free sd if I call to the river. The bet at the river is to prevent the reversed implied odds by getting paid when ahead. Also the pot is pretty big making the rio a smaller factor.
We have a problem though. When behind we're way behind drawing as good as dead. When we're ahead CO has 3 outs which is not very much, but here's where MP3 becomes a concern again. He's likely to have 3-5 additional outs against me making it 6-8 outs. And since there's no way I'm getting MP3 to fold that will cut pretty big into my equity. Still, of about 13 combos I'm ahead of 5, splitting to 2 and loses to 6. I think that's enough for a call-down.
About hitting a K or J, I know that won't improve my hand against CO, but if I hit a K or J I will instead check/call the river since I otherwise would have to call a raise (he might raise KT when he rivers trips) and I'm now also certain he'll bet the river value betting his trips. At the same time I'm all of a sudden ahead of less combos since there's now less combos of KT/K9s/Kxs possible.
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