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Old 12-25-2005, 01:47 AM
Pog0 Pog0 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 27
Default Re: 10/20 Blinds hand - I choke in the face of a turn donkbet

I feel inclined to fold here on the turn, and if we're good here, villian will often have 9,13,21 outs.

Running a 43% range for villain, our equity is at 32%, but our equity must be lower for his range of hands that donk the turn. We should assume we need to call 2 BB to win 6 at this point. Yes, we only need 25% equity to make this breakeven, but do we really have that against his range at this point? He might even give up on the river with his bluffs/semibluffs so you may end up winning less when ahead and more when behind. But he might also give you a free showdown with his 9x,8x, and 7x hands to compensate for this.

I don't know, I would habitually fold this spot, but that may be wrong, and I wouldn't know what to think of most river cards.
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