Re: Party 3/6.... do I go for the trifecta while trapping the whole fi
[ QUOTE ]
And even if he would definitely bet, it's better to bet yourself and hope he raises, protecting your hand.
[/ QUOTE ]
If we know the flop aggressor will bet the turn, going for a check/raise would be correct and it's not close at all.
First of all, a check/raise would guarantee that 2 bets goes into the pot making it incorrect for a gut-shot to call along, while a bet only gets 2 bets into the pot when we get raised. And when we get raised we will never ever get a hand that's correct to call to fold. Because our hand is so strong the only hands correct to call is a fd or oesd and those won't fold. But check/raising will trap those hands we don't want to fold, such as paired hands and PPs. A bet and a raise won't do that.
There's absolutely no point in betting this turn if we know it's going to get bet behind.
In reality, what hands will the prf cap the flop with. AA-JJ (and TT but that's a hand we're screwed against however we play) and AK-AT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/KQ-KT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/QJ-QT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So by checking the turn we're definately giving a freecard to at least 6 of his possible holdings, maybe even as much as 9 holdings depending on if he bets his flushdraws paired with a T. I think we can estimate we give a freecard to 7.5 combos on average and we'll be able to check/raise 26.5 holdings. Giving a freecard would really blow so I think the decision on betting or check/raising the turn is pretty close, but in a favor of betting out.
|