[cbloom]

It looks to me like it entirely depends on whether you think he can have AA-JJ here. If his range is QQ-TT,88,44,Ah8h, you're 56% to win and you have to call. If you take out the QQ and JJ, you're 10% to win and have to fold. The just-call on the flop and check-raise on the turn sure would be weird for QQ and JJ, they look a lot more like a set to me. If he was more of a donk I'd be inclined to add in some "wtf" hands (where you call and he turns over AK or 99 and you go "wtf") which give you a free extra 10% chance of winning, but his stats don't look like that.