Re: Commerce 10/20 - Bad Call with Bottom Set?
On the turn, he has 22% equity vs your hand, 82% vs a pair+spade, and 2% vs a higher set. 82% is also his equity vs a random hand, if he thinks you're doing this with complete air despite all the people left to act. He's getting about 2.1:1, meaning he needs 32% equity for the call to be profitable.
His equity vs some sample ranges, with the percentages being the probability of you holding that hand:
flush/pr+draw/set : equity
--------------------------
50%/25%/25% : 32%
50%/10%/40% : 20%
33%/33%/33% : 35%
25%/25%/50% : 27%
-----------------------------------
On the turn, unless you're pushing draws or air fairly often his call's incorrect. The flop call's probably closer, but he's getting worse than 2:1 with four players left to act including the flop bettor. Again, he needs to be ahead of you a fair amount of the time to make it correct. I think he just overestimated the likelihood of you running a semibluff.
|