Re: How good is your maths?
OK. Let's break it down.
If he calls, you have 4 outs to win 4225 (2075+2150). The rest you lose 2150. That gives you an EV when he calls of (4/46*4225)-(42/46*2150) or -1596.
If we call the chance that he folds X, then your EV for pushing is X*2075+(1-X)*-1596. Solve that for EV=0 (where you break even) and you get X = 0.435. So if he folds more than 43.5% of the time you should win in the long run.
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