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Old 12-21-2001, 01:06 PM
Posts: n/a
Default I don\'t know too much about Richard

As you know, Richard Dennis started a fund a few years back, 1 or 2 hundred million, ran good for a year or two, lost some money the next couple quarters, and shut down. I don't remember the numbers exactly.

His stated philosophy was approximately to "enter trends when volatility is low, and exit once it has increased." That can be implemented a number of ways, but basically think of exiting a big trend when the daily range gets equally big relative to the monthly range or something.

The ulterior motive is to attempt to enter inside of other Turtles and John Henry-types, and then unload into them, or into big random chop after the disclocation. Whereas Eckhardt, I imagine, is today trying to go outside or around the other Turtles - their entry signals, for the most part, having smoothed out and become more delicate and gradual around the micro-chop.

I suspect that Richard's pleasure comes from figuring out how to beat the market, rather than from actually beating it. I don't think money makes him happy, except to the extent he can spend it on women's shelters or political causes -which never pan out - or something.

He likes working with people, and studying them, and the people who have known him seem to really revere him as some great and generous religious figure - which he sort of is! So far as his trading ideas, though, I suspect they may have stagnated. Plus, I suspect he needs to react to the market, and learn on the fly, but nobody will give him money unless all the algorithms are set in advance. It's no fun.

I am honestly curious as to how he really makes a living today, how much he is trading his own account, how much money he has, and so on. After all, I have quit trading "for good" from time to time myself, and there just isn't a whole lot else out there!

Anyway, Dunn just had his worst month in many years. I am under the impression - and this is just hearsay - that his fast-exit system had already gotten flat in the interest-rate products, got long again when 30-years were declared dead, then whipsawed in the washout which I talked about selling in an earlier post.

I think Dunn will fix it or add something, like he added TOPS a few years back, but I don't know if it will be enough. On the other hand, you also don't want to put your money with an uinknown, un-evolved quantity, and Dunn doesn't seem like one to move too fast, assuming he even moves at all.

When you bet with Dunn, I still think you're betting on major moves, which you aren't going to get. Dunn also seems to implicitly assume others won't get killed in chop and he alongside, and that all moves are a trend. Whereas Eckhardt filters and never enters, Dunn never exits, if I understand it right.

Are you thinking of rating them, or putting together some kind of, like, Morningstar report on CTA's? If so, you should give me an expense account and a letterhead, and I'll go out and pick every brain on the list, from the bottom to the top. I'll explain to you whom you can expect to make money, who is doomed, who is a gamble and, more important, why.

Then you can form your own opinion! But they might not talk to you like they'll talk to me, because you're not a chart-junky. If I had to bet today, I'd go with Eckhardt, Shanks, Campbell, Crabel, Neundlinger... actually, there are more, but I wouldn't bet at all, not on any of them, until I'd done some more research!

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