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Old 08-13-2005, 04:47 PM
DpR DpR is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 76
Default Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!

Wow, it amazing this concept is not understood on this board. The 5%/300 'rule' refers to a 1 time calculation. If you start 100 players with the exact same 1BB win rate and whatever SD that figure was calced on, 5 of them will go broke and 95 will have their bankroll grow forever to infinity. This assumes no cash outs EVER.

However, it would be completely incorrect to suggest that only 5 of these people will ever experience a 300BB downswing, in fact if they play long enough most likely EVERY one of the 100 plays will experience such a downswing. They however will not be ruined becasue they had more than 300BB when the downswing started.

Max's posts allude to this fact. In that if you constantly cash out to 300BB, eventually you will have a downswing and go 'broke'. Of course this definition of broke only refers to bankroll you had not cashed out. If you still consider cashed out money to be part of your bankroll then they have not ruined at all.

Wow, a lot of people need to go study some blackjack books so they get at least a remedial understanding of risk and ruin.
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