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Old 07-22-2005, 01:09 PM
Beck Beck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Denmark
Posts: 188
Default A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings

We all know downswings happens, even to the best players. We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**.

I see a lot of posters who ask "I just had 10 OTM, is that normal" or "how long has your longest losing streak been".

Personally I play the $22's and started the $33's and am super-over-bankrolled for them, as I am very conservative moving up, and has been playing 1/2 limit and bonuswhoring previously.
So downswings is no threat to my BR at all, but still hate to lose of course. I'm down 9 buy-ins after 35 $33's, but have had 9 4th's which all were coinflips between exit and a usually solid lead ITM. Being on the wrong side of variance, they were all exits. Some yelling, some stomping in the ground, and I realized that my average $EV of these 4'ths were about $65, so I'll just wait for the results to even out, and then (therotically) I'm showing profit. Playing correctly and the results is what's important, right??
And even when I've played 10 times as many SNG's, if I make a couple of 1st in a row that will be clearly visile in ROI. And a losing streak of 10+ gamesOTM will also be clearly visible. So that just goes to show the importance of sufficient sample size.

Anyhow...... Enough rambling....
What I would like to see from some of you winning players is a result-streak of perhaps 1000 (2000 SNG's??) that shows the ups and downs of good/bad luck periods, if possible graphically.
I think that will give me, as well as other newbies who still doubt themselves when the downswings happens, what sort of fluctuations one could expect.

Anybody willing to provide their data?
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