[damaniac]

First, let me say that I only have a vague understanding of the ideas you are mentioning.

That said, those graphs are mostly for fun. You get keep on eye on how you're running, show off you're OMG 200BB DOWNSWING, and look at a large upward spike 6 months later and fondly recall the 1 hour session where you won 75BB or whatever.

The problem (I think) with trying to use those charts for anything is that the longrun is simply way too long. Players will, presumably without major changes in ability or that of the opposition, run at very different winrates over different 50k hand periods. It'd doubtful that a confident/not confident mindset is going to run throughout a period that long: so much occurs that you're mental state is either going to remain pretty level (if you're good) or be all over the place (if you're not), but I'd be surprised if any one mood (or other factor) is likely to dominate over that many hands.