Re: First to Act Post Flop - Counting outs
No joke. And I saw your subsequent post.
My purpose is to put pot equity principals such as you discuss in more concrete and simple terms (by using the concepts of outs and pot odds).
Heres an example:
You have 78s in the BB.
Theres a bet and a raise preflop.
You call (forget about whether this call is the correct play).
Opener calls.
3 to the flop for 6 small bets.
Flop is TJ2 (rainbow, all of different suits than yours).
You have a gutshot draw.
You have 4 outs and 6:1 pot odds.
Not enough to justify a call in and of itself.
But if you believe there is just a 10% chance of the players behind you folding, your call would be justified (you add 4 outs to your gutshot 4 for a total of 8 outs).
Here's why:
Play it out 10 times, bet each time:
1 time, they both fold. Investment 1, Gain 6
1 time (a slight overstatement but you get the point), you hit gutshot. Investment 1, Gain 6 (preflop) (not taking into account further implied odds)
8 times, one or both of your opponents calls and you don't hit your gutshot. Investment 8, Gain 0.
Total Investment 10 small bets, Gain 12 small bets.
Raise the fold probability to 20% and your getting better than 3:2 on your money.
Obviously, this does not take into account the chance of being raised. I'd like to hear how you'd adjust this concept to take this problem into account.
I believe thinking about pot odds when your first to act in a heads up or 3 handed pot can be very useful.
|